Identification and Prediction of Career Offenders Utilizing Self-Reported and Official Data (From Prevention of Delinquent Behavior, P 90-121, 1987, John D Burchard and Sara N Burchard, eds. -- See NCJ-112840)

• NCJ Number: 112844
• Author(s): D S Elliott; F W Dunford; D Huizinga
• Date Published: 1987
• Length: 32 pages
• Grant Number(s): MH 27552; 82-IJ-CX-0011; 78-JN-AX-0003
• Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice (NIJ); US Securities and Exchange Cmssn; National Institute of Mental Health; US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
• Sale Source: Sage Publications, Inc
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This study identifies career offenders among youth in the National Youth Survey (NYS) sample on the basis of high frequency and persistence in self-reported offending; validates this classification with official arrest data and a set of demographic, personal attitude, perceived environment, and delinquent peer association measures; and examines the feasibility of predicting which offenders will subsequently become career offenders.

Abstract

The NYS sample was drawn in late 1976 and contained approximately 2,360 eligible youth aged 11-17 at the time of the initial interview. Of these, 1,725 agreed to participate in the study. The career offender classification, based upon self-reported data from a representative national youth panel, apparently provides a useful and valid classification of offenders. When compared to an official offender classification, most self-reported career offenders are unknown to the police. The predictive analysis indicates the difficulty of predicting which youth in the population will subsequently become career offenders. The attempt to identify which youth were or would become career offenders at the point of their first arrest was more successful. 8 tables, 6 notes, and 90 references.