NCJ Number
84433
Date Published
1978
Length
133 pages
Annotation
This initial test of the utility of small area data coupled with the research methodology and computer software being developed under the Crime Indicator Program addresses the problem in using crime analysis as a foundation for juvenile delinquency program planning in a metropolitan area.
Abstract
Using a restructured computerized file of Los Angeles County Probation Department case transaction data for 1970-75, the research identified the significant spatial patterns of various types of juvenile offenses by where the delinquents lived. By isolating the spatial distributions for 1975 as the criterion, relevant trends were determined from the previous 5 years of data, which in turn provided the information for establishing short-term estimated projections to 1980. The projections provide a way of signaling to the planner location of areas undergoing either increases or decreases in level of delinquent activity relative to their 1975 status, as well as a set of reference points from which to measure the impact of intervention programs that may be introduced into selected communities or neighborhoods. Given more detailed information about the social structural and cultural features of subarea populations, program and policy planning can be increasingly targeted on features of the crime control problem as it varies across the subgroups of metropolitan populations. Tabular and graphic data are provided, and appended are a description of cluster locations in the county and a listing of basic census tracts by specific delinquency cluster. (Author summary modified)