NCJ Number
147038
Date Published
1992
Length
50 pages
Annotation
Data from more than 6,000 male California inmates who were incarcerated in the early 1960's and from 157,936 persons first arrested in California in 1980 were used to test assumptions about the predictability of criminal behavior and the implications for corrections policies of collective and selective incapacitation.
Abstract
The research used information from 1962-63 regarding life histories, prison records of 1,299 inmates, questionnaire responses from 3,652 inmates, and psychological test data from 3,975 inmates. Followup data were collected in 1988. The 1962-63 sample was divided into a study sample of 3,108 persons and a validation sample of 3,202. The later sample was used to ensure that findings from the earlier group were relevant to the current offending population. Results revealed that findings regarding the earlier sample are relevant to the current population. Overall, the 1962-63 offenders have been arrested at least 30,000 times since their release and have been charged with several times that many offenses. More than half the offenses charged were nuisance offenses such as parole and probation rules violations, drunk driving, possession and use of drugs, disorderly conduct, and gambling. However, the offenders also committed almost 10,000 other crimes, including assaults, robberies, homicides, burglaries, and thefts. Arrest rates declined with age, and specialization increased very little with age. A test of models predicting criminality revealed only modest predictive power. The data strongly argued against collective incapacitation strategies and provided little support for selective incapacitation. Therefore, those proposing selective incapacitation must overcome many serious obstacles, even if serious ethical programs are set aside. Figures, tables, and footnotes