NCJ Number
39017
Date Published
1976
Length
48 pages
Annotation
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM IS DEFINED AS BEING CARRIED OUT BY INDIVIDUALS OR GROUPS CONTROLLED BY A SOVEREIGN STATE; TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM AS CARRIED OUT BY BASICALLY AUTONOMOUS NON-STATE ACTORS.
Abstract
THIS ANALYSIS CONSIDERS THE DYNAMICS AND CONSEQUENCES OF INTERNATIONAL AND TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM SINCE 1965, IDENTIFIES THOSE FACTORS LIKELY TO PROMOTE OR INHIBIT SUCH ACTIVITY IN THE YEARS AHEAD, AND ASSESSES THE IMPLICATIONS OF THESE FINDINGS WITH RESPECT TO UNITED STATES' POLICIES AND INTERESTS. THE PRINCIPAL UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS OF THIS EXAMINATION ARE THREE. THE FIRST IS THAT THE BASIC SOCIETAL PROBLEMS AND TENSIONS THAT CAN GIVE RISE TO POLITICAL VIOLENCE ARE LIKELY TO PROVE PARTICULARLY INTRACTABLE IN THE MIDST OF RAPID CHANGE, GROWING NATIONALISM AND ETHNICITY, AND WORLD-WIDE ECONOMIC STRAINS. IT IS ALSO ASSUMED THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR DOMESTIC, INTERNATIONAL, AND TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THAT THE SCOPE OF THE PROBLEM WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON FACTORS AFFECTING THE OPPORTUNITIES, ALTERNATIVES, AND BEHAVIORAL CONSTRAINTS FACED BY THE GROUP ACTORS INVOLVED. FINALLY, IT IS POSTULATED THAT MAN'S SUBJECTIVE PERCEPTION OF 'REALITY' SERVES AS THE PRIMARY DETERMINANT OF HIS POLITICAL BEHAVIOR. APPENDED MATERIALS INCLUDE A LIST OF SIGNIFICANT VARIABLES AFFECTING TERRORISM AND TABULAR AND GRAPHIC DATA ON STATISTICAL TRENDS AND PATTERNS IN TERRORIST ACTIVITY. ...ELW