LAWRENCE (MA) - USE OF AVCO DATA ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION TECHNIQUES (ADAPT) - FINAL REPORT

• NCJ Number: 9156
• Author(s): H E HUNTER; J CONWAY
• Date Published: 1972
• Length: 250 pages
• Grant Number(s): 70-24
• Sponsoring Agency: Massachusetts Cmtte on Criminal Justice
• Corporate Author: Avco Corporation
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF DATA USEFUL IN PLANNING MANPOWER DEPLOYMENT AND UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF CRIME OCCURRENCE.

Abstract

TECHNIQUES WERE DEVELOPED WHICH ALLOWED THE DEFINITION OF SPECIFIC CRIME EPOCHS, DURING WHICH THE CHARACTERISTIC DESCRIPTORS OF THE CRIME SITUATION REMAIN CONSTANT. BY APPLYING CLASSICAL STATISTICAL CRIME ANALYSIS DURING THESE CRIME EPOCHS, SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE UNDERSTANDING OF THE PROBABILITIES OF CRIME OCCURRENCE CAN BE ACHIEVED. THE SAME DATA BASE WAS UTILIZED TO INVESTIGATE ALGORITHMS FOR USING THE CURRENT CRIME SITUATION TO PREDICT SPECIFIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FUTURE CRIME SITUATION AND TO USE THE DESCRIPTORS OF A GIVEN CRIME TO PREDICT CHARACTERISTICS OF THAT CRIME WHICH WOULD BE USEFUL IN THE APPREHENSION OF THE CRIMINAL. THE APPENDED MATERIAL INCLUDES A PROGRAM DESCRIPTION AND ANALYSIS FLOW CHARTS, RECOMMENDED CRIME RECORD FORMS, AND A GLOSSARY OF ADAPT AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS TERMS. (AUTHOR MODIFIED)