NCJ Number
13991
Date Published
1971
Length
191 pages
Annotation
THIS REPORT STUDIES THE FEASIBILITY OF A QUANTITATIVE APPROACH TO A CERTAIN CLASS OF PROBLEMS SURROUNDING THE INVESTIGATION OF UNSOLVED CASES IN A DETECTIVE DIVISION OF A MUNICIPAL POLICE DEPARTMENT.
Abstract
THE PROBLEMS OF A DETECTIVE DIVISION ARE ANALYZED FROM TWO LEVELS. FIRST, THE DETECTIVE DIVISION IS STUDIED AS A QUEUING SYSTEM, OPERATING WITH SATURATED RESOURCES AS THE SYSTEM PROCESSES UNSOLVED CASES. WITH THE PURPOSE OF STUDYING VARIOUS CASE-ASSIGNMENT POLICIES, ANALYTICAL QUEUING MODELS REPRESENTING A DETECTIVE SYSTEM ARE EVALUATED AND A COMPUTER SIMULATION OF A DETECTIVE SYSTEM IS PRESENTED. SECOND, THE DETECTIVE DIVISION IS STUDIED ON A MICRO-SCALE, FOCUSSING ON CASE-SOLVING PROCEDURES OF INDIVIDUAL DETECTIVES. A CASE-STRATEGY MODEL IS STRUCTURED FOR MAKING DECISIONS ON A DETECTIVE'S NEXT COURSE OF ACTION DURING AN INVESTIGATION. IN ADDITION TO THE MATHEMATICAL MODELS, THE REPORT PRESENTS TWO QUANTITATIVE STUDIES ON THE BOSTON DETECTIVE SYSTEM: A SUMMARY OF THE VARIOUS EVIDENCE AND INFORMATION DETECTIVES USED IN SOLVING 61 CASES, AND AN ANALYSIS OF THE NUMBER OF CRIMES REPORTED TO THE DETECTIVE SYSTEM BY DAY OF WEEK. THIS PRELIMINARY STUDY SUGGESTS THAT SIMULATION MODELING OF AN OVERALL DETECTIVE SYSTEM MAY BE HELPFUL TO DETECTIVE SUPERVISORS IN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVES IN CASE-ASSIGNMENT POLICIES. ON THE OTHER HAND, FOR THE CASE-STRATEGY MODEL, IT APPEARS THAT THE DATA REQUIREMENTS OF SUCH A MODEL ARE SUFFICIENTLY LARGE THAT IT IS QUESTIONABLE IF THE MODEL COULD IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY A DETECTIVE'S INTUITIVE CASE-SOLVING WOULD LIKELY BE LESS PUNITIVE THAN THE INDETERMINATE