NCJ Number
183213
Journal
Criminology Volume: 38 Issue: 2 Dated: May 2000 Pages: 525-552
Date Published
May 2000
Length
28 pages
Annotation
This study develops a latent class modeling method to examine variation in offending trajectories.
Abstract
The model was applied to test the predictions of trajectory theories that offending history data can be classified into early onset/life-course-persistent offending and late onset/adolescent-limited offending trajectories, with these trajectory groups being related to different etiological factors. The approach was applied to data gathered over the course of a longitudinal study of more than 900 New Zealand children studied from birth until the age of 18. Analysis identified four trajectory groups corresponding to non-offenders, moderate risk offenders, adolescent onset offenders and chronic offenders. Social, family, childhood and peer factors associated with these offending trajectories suggested the presence of a series of common etiological factors relating to family functioning and early adjustment that discriminated between the trajectory groups. However, evidence of trajectory-specific etiology also existed, in which formation of deviant peer affiliations for young people from moderate risk backgrounds led to the rapid onset of offending in adolescence. Notes, tables, references