NCJ Number
238703
Date Published
July 2011
Length
32 pages
Annotation
Persons sentenced for felony convictions in Oregon and released from jail or prison in 2005 and 2006 were evaluated for revocation risk, with revocation risk compared for three groups; those released from jail, those released from prison, and those served through interstate compact.
Abstract
Twenty-four percent were revoked within 2 years after release. The revocation rate was lowest for the interstate-compact population and highest for the jail population. Revocation risk was influenced by a number of static and demographic variables. Independent variables that were common among the three populations included recidivism risk, number of arrests while on parole or post-prison supervision (PPS), number of prior felony convictions, age, and being a veteran. In the comparison of the jail and prison populations, both age and number of prior felony convictions had similar effects for both populations. The number of arrests while on parole/PPS had more of an effect with the jail population than on those released from prison. The factors that were important for the prison population but were not important risk factors for the jail population included being male, being African-American, being incarcerated for a violent offense, being incarcerated for a public-order offense, and being considered high risk at release. All of these factors increased the risk for revocation in the population released from prison; however, they were not significant risk considerations for those released from jail. Other factors with different effects on risk level for the two populations were veteran status, prior imprisonment, and incarceration for a property crime. The predictive accuracy of the models suggests that individuals prone to parole revocations after release from jail and prison can be identified with some accuracy. 9 tables and appended supplementary data