NCJ Number
31911
Date Published
1976
Length
23 pages
Annotation
THIS PAPER REVIEWS AND UPDATES THE EMPIRICAL ASPECT OF AN ANALYSIS BY ISAAC EHRLICH ON THE EFFECT OF SPECIFIC DETERRENTS ON THE INDEX CRIME RATE.
Abstract
USING STATE CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA FOR 1960, EHRLICH ESTIMATED THAT A ONE PERCENT INCREASE IN SPENDING ON POLICE WOULD PRODUCE, BY WAY OF AN INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY OF PUNISHMENT, A THREE PERCENT DECREASE IN THE SERIOUS CRIMES RATE; WE USE DATA FOR 1970 WITHIN A SIMILAR ANALYTICAL MODEL AND FIND THE CRIME RATE TO BE VIRTUALLY INSENSITIVE TO CROSS-STATE VARIATION IN EITHER THE PROBABILITY OR SEVERITY OF PUNISHMENT. WE FOCUS ON THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TWO ANALYSES, AND FIND THAT WHILE A TEMPORAL EFFECT APPEARS TO PRODUCE SOME OF THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MAJOR FINDING, MOST OF THE DIFFERENCE APPEARS DUE TO METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS WITH EHRLICH'S EMPIRICAL WORK. WE CONCLUDE THAT WHILE OUR FINDINGS DO NOT RESOLVE THE ISSUE, THEY DO CAST DOUBT ON EHRLICH'S RESULT AND ON THE STRONG POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS THAT HAVE FOLLOWED HIS ANALYSIS. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT)