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Population Aging and Crime in Canada, 2000-2041

NCJ Number
189590
Journal
Canadian Journal of Criminology Volume: 43 Issue: 3 Dated: July 2001 Pages: 331-356
Author(s)
Peter J. Carrington
Editor(s)
Julian Roberts
Date Published
July 2001
Length
26 pages
Annotation
This report discussed the levels of crime in Canada forecasted for the time period 2000 to 2041 based on current age-specific crime and criminal victimization rates, population age structure projections, and the assumption that age-specific crime rates would not change in the future.
Abstract
This report on the aging population and crime in Canada from the year 2000 to 2041 estimates the extent to which future crime rates would be affected by projected demographic change alone and the simple effect of changes in the proportions of the population in each age group. All types of crime are forecast to decline in Canada due to the continuing aging of the Canadian population. The overall recorded crime rate is forecast to fall to 85 percent of its 1999 level by 2026 and to 81 percent by 2041. The risk of criminal victimization is forecast to follow a similar pattern. Recorded rates of crimes characteristic of teenagers and young adults, such as robbery and breaking and entering, should fall faster and father. Crimes that are more characteristic of older adults, such as sexual assault and drinking and driving, should be affected less due to the aging population. The results are only estimates of changes occurring as a result of demographic change alone. Tables, graphs, appendix, and references