NCJ Number
154511
Journal
Corrections Compendium Volume: 20 Issue: 3 Dated: (March 1995) Pages: 4-20
Date Published
1995
Length
17 pages
Annotation
Prison population forecasts are important for correctional department and institution planners and are essential tools in analyzing the impact of new and proposed changes in laws, policies, and administrative practices.
Abstract
Prison population projections, used to plan construction projects and legislative bills, also represent a social map of specific crime problems in various geographic regions. Most correctional departments take advantage of the technology available to produce accurate prison population projections. Some States use IMPACT (Interactive Model for Projecting Arrests and Corrections Trends) to analyze projection data. The Federal Bureau of Prisons uses a microsimulation technique to evaluate prison records and predict what will happen to those in the system and those coming into the system. The most popular software for predicting prison populations is the Prophet simulation software produced by the National Council on Crime and Delinquency. A 1994 survey of 48 correctional systems showed that 955,625 inmates were under their jurisdiction; these systems had a combined capacity of 769,928, for a 24 percent overcrowding rate. The survey also resulted in prison population projections through the year 2000, and these projections are presented in tabular form for the United States and Canada. 4 tables