NCJ Number
37781
Date Published
1976
Length
380 pages
Annotation
RESULTS OF A STUDY WHICH APPLIED SELECTED FORECASTING METHODS TO THE ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL TRENDS TO IDENTIFY IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE ROLES OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE PERSONNEL AND THE TRAINING OF THOSE PERSONNEL.
Abstract
THE FORECASTING METHODS UTILIZED INCLUDED EXPERT OPINION, TIME-SERIES TREND DATA, AND LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF TRENDS. THE FORECASTING METHODS WERE SELECTED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT, ALTHOUGH AMERICAN SOCIETY IS UNDERGOING MAJOR CHANGES, TRENDS THAT HAVE BEEN IN EXISTENCE FOR HUNDREDS OF YEARS HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS CENTURY AND, PERHAPS, WELL INTO THE NEXT CENTURY. INDEED, MANY OF THE CHANGES IN AMERICAN SOCIETY ARE SEEN TO BE THE MANIFESTATIONS OF THE LONG-RANGE TRENDS. FOLLOWING A LITERATURE REVIEW OF THE MAJOR LONG-RANGE TRENDS DESCRIBED BY MANY SCHOLARS AND SOCIAL SCIENTISTS, TEN LONG-RANGE TRENDS OF GROUPS OF CLOSELY RELATED TRENDS WERE SELECTED FOR DETAILED DESCRIPTION AND ANALYSIS OF IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM. THE TRENDS SELECTED REFLECT A CONSENSUS OF EXPERT OPINION ON THE DIRECTIONS IN WHICH AMERICAN SOCIETY IS MOVING AND HAVE SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCES FOR THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM. THE REASONS FOR THE SELECTION OF THE FORECASTING METHODS AND THE SPECIFIC LONG-RANGE TRENDS ARE REVIEWED. THE TRENDS ARE: POPULATION GROWTH, INDUSTRIALIZATION, URBANIZATION, INCREASING UTILITARIANISM IN SOCIETY, INCREASING SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, INCREASING DEMOCRATIZATION, INCREASING BUREAUCRACY, INCREASING ECONOMIC INFLUENCE, INCREASING PROFESSIONALIZATION, AND INCREASING AUTOMATION OF PRODUCTION AND INFORMATION. EACH OF THESE TRENDS IS DESCRIBED, AND ITS IMPLICATIONS ARE EXAMINED FOR CRIMINAL JUSTICE, POLICE, COURTS, CORRECTIONS, AND TRAINING AND EDUCATION. A METHOD FOR MONITORING THESE TRENDS IS ALSO PRESENTED. THIS METHOD IDENTIFIES KEY INDICATORS WITHIN EACH OF THE MAJOR TRENDS THAT COULD BE USED AS SENSING TOOLS FOR: (1) EARLY WARNING INDICATORS OF CRIME, OR (2) EARLY WARNING SIGNALS OF POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FROM CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM ROLES, OPERATIONS, ORGANIZATION, AND STAFFING. THE USE OF THE INDICATORS FOR RESEARCH, PLANNING, AND OPERATIONAL DECISION MAKING IS DESCRIBED. THE RESULTS OF THE STUDY INCLUDE STATEMENTS OF EXISTING CONDITIONS, DESCRIPTIONS OF TRENDS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION. THE STUDY CONCLUDES, AMONG OTHER THINGS, THAT CRIME CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE, THAT THE ROLE OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE PERSONNEL CAN BE EXPECTED TO CHANGE, AND THAT NEW FOCUSES OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING WILL BE REQUIRED.