NCJ Number
79737
Date Published
1981
Length
23 pages
Annotation
The methodology for projecting the future inmate population of Kentucky correctional institutions is described, and projections for 1981 are presented.
Abstract
The methodology is a simulation modeling technique which aims at replicating various components of the corrections system and trends in commitments and releases. The projections rely on knowledge of the inmate population's sentence distribution, parole board actions, time served, and the relationship of unemployment statistics to prison commitment statistics. The projection process consists of three basic stages: (1) forecasting anticipated release dates for inmates already incarcerated at the start of the projection period, (2) predicting commitments to Kentucky prisons for the projection period, and (3) projecting anticipated release dates for predicted commitments that will be released during the projection period. The Computer Services Section of the Bureau of Corrections developed a computer-based Offender Records Information and Operations Network (ORION) which had the potential to provide the data needed for the projections. Variables from the offenders' records identified as necessary for the projection were the offenders' type of commitment, the institutional start date, race, amount of jail time credited against the total time to be served, sentence, original parole hearing date, action taken by the parole board at the hearing, type of release, date of release, date of birth, minimum expiration date, and the amount of time on release prior to the most recent commitment for those who violate conditions of release and are reincarcerated. The model projected an inmate population of 3,682 for the first quarter of 1981, while the actual population at the end of March was 3,672 yielding a margin of error generally considered acceptable for population projections. Tabular and graphic data are provided.