NCJ Number
27491
Date Published
1975
Length
47 pages
Annotation
A DISCUSSION OF THE RESULTS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THIS SURVEY OF OVER 4,000 PERSONS IN THE PORTLAND AREA UNDERTAKEN TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF VICTIMIZATION FOR THE CRIMES OF RAPE, ASSAULT, BURGLARY AND ROBBERY.
Abstract
THE MAJOR LONG RANGE OBJECTIVE OF THIS RESEARCH IS TO DEVELOP AREA-SPECIFIC CRIME PREDICTION MODELS FOR USE BY CRIMINAL JUSTICE AGENCIES. THE SURVEY WAS DESIGNED SO THAT VICTIMIZATION DATA, ALONG WITH GEOGRAPHICALLY-CODED OFFICIAL CRIME DATA COULD BE USED TO ASSESS CHANGES IN THE PORTLAND CRIME RATE AND TO EXAMINE DISPLACEMENT EFFECTS OF THE IMPACT PROGRAM. IT WAS FOUND THAT THE VICTIMIZATION RATE WAS DECREASING, AND THAT INCREASES IN OFFICIAL CRIME RATES WERE PROBABLY DUE TO CHANGES IN THE PERCENTAGE OF CRIMES REPORTED. THE PERCENTAGE OF CRIMES REPORTED WAS FOUND TO FLUCTUATE WIDELY DURING TWO-MONTH TIME SEGMENTS. TWO METHODS WERE STUDIED FOR REDUCING BIASES SUCH AS FORGETTING VICTIMIZATIONS OR RECALLING THE WRONG DATE ON WHICH VICTIMIZATIONS OCCURED. THE ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT VICTIM-TO-VICTIM DISPLACEMENT EFFECTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN COMMUNITY PROGRAMS WHERE THE INDIVIDUAL INCREASES HIS OWN PROTECTION. PROGRAMS IN WHICH RESIDENTS PROTECTED EACH OTHER COULD RESULT IN MORE AREA CRIME REDUCTION AND GEOGRAPHICAL DISPLACEMENT. IT WAS SHOWN THAT THE PROPERTY-MARKING PROGRAM REDUCED VICTIMIZATION FOR PARTICIPANTS. A STUDY ON VICTIM'S DECISIONS TO REPORT CRIMES IS ALSO DISCUSSED. IMPLICATIONS OF THESE FINDINGS ARE EXAMINED.