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NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF CRIME

NCJ Number
31978
Journal
Journal of Police Science and Administration Volume: 3 Issue: 3 Dated: (SEPTEMBER 1975) Pages: 312-318
Author(s)
D HEAUKULANI
Date Published
1975
Annotation
THIS PAPER PROPOSES THAT THE INCREASE IN CRIME IS A COROLLARY TO THE NATURAL INCREASE OF OTHER SOCIAL VARIABLES SUCH AS POPULATION, AND URGES CRIME PROGRAM PLANNERS TO CONSIDER THIS WHEN PROJECTING OBJECTIVES.
Abstract
THE AUTHOR ARGUES THAT CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR IS LARGELY DETERMINED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE CRIME OBJECTIVE SITUATION. THIS CONCEPT IS A COMMONSENSE APPROACH WHICH STATES THAT A SUITABLE SITUATION MUST PRESENT ITSELF BEFORE A CRIME CAN BE COMMITTED. FOR EXAMPLE, POPULATION SHOULD BE RELATED TO THE OVERALL CRIME RATE, AND AUTO THEFT RATES SHOULD BE RELATED TO THE NUMBER OF AUTOS REGISTERED IN AN AREA. THE AUTHOR PRESENTS A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR ANALYSIS OF THESE RELATIONSHIPS, AND ALSO PROVIDES A LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF POPULATION AND THE CRIME RATE FOR 1963-1974 WHICH SHOWS A LINEAR INCREASE IN CRIME ACCORDING TO POPULATION. THE RANGERS OF FORMULATING POLICE ANTI-CRIME GOALS WITHOUT CONSIDERING THIS 'NORMAL' CRIME GROWTH ARE DISCUSSED. THE AUTHOR CONCLUDES THAT PROGRAM OBJECTIVES AND EVALUATION CRITERIA SHOULD BE PROJECTED ACCORDING TO THE EXPECTED CRIME FREQUENCY. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)

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