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Adult and Juvenile Correctional Population Projections Fiscal Years 2006-2011

NCJ Number
Date Published
June 2006
22 pages
This report presents adult and juvenile correctional population projections in Texas for fiscal years 2006-2011, which are used as a basis for biennial funding determinations.
The adult incarceration population is projected to increase, although at a lower rate than previously projected. The current projection is similar to the January 2005 projection through fiscal year 2007. After fiscal year 2007, the adult incarceration population is not anticipated to increase as rapidly due to a decrease in projected admissions. A continued increase in direct court sentences to prison is the primary driving force behind the projected growth in the incarcerated population. Projected adult incarceration populations at the end of each biennium are as follows: 153,915 for 2006-07; 158,162 for 2008-09; and 161,990 for 2010-11. Projected inmate populations that exceed operating capacity are shown. The parole supervision population is projected to decrease slightly. For adult felony community supervision, actual and projected populations are reported for fiscal years 2001-2011. The supervision population is projected to increase modestly. Projections are also reported for adult misdemeanor actual and projected community supervision placements for fiscal years 2001-2011. These placements are expected to increase at a moderate rate. Juvenile actual and projected residential populations are presented for fiscal years 2001-2011. This population is projected to increase moderately through 2011. Projected juvenile residential populations at the end of each biennium are as follows: 5,006 for 2006-07; 5,096 for 2008-09; and 5,315 for 2010-11. The projected residential population numbers that exceed State-operated capacity are reported. Juvenile probation supervision actual and projected populations are projected for calendar years 2001-2003 and fiscal years 2004-2011. Extensive tables and figures and appended methodology and assumptions