NCJ Number
19148
Date Published
1974
Length
21 pages
Annotation
THIS PAPER IS A DISCUSSION OF WHETHER SOCIOLOGICAL MODELS OF DEMOGRAPHIC FLOW CAN BE USEFUL IN EXPLAINING THE FLOW OF CRIME WITHIN A CITY.
Abstract
A REVIEW OF SOME RECENT RESEARCH ON SOCIAL GRAVITATION BY PROMINENT SOCIOLOGISTS AND DEMOGRAPHERS IS PRESENTED TO GIVE THE PROPER PERSPECTIVE ON THE MODELS TO BE TESTED. THE RELATIONSHIP OF EACH OF THESE MODELS TO LOCAL CRIME DATA SUBSEQUENTLY IS EXAMINED TO SEE IF THE THEORIES WHICH APPLY TO POPULATION MOVEMENT WITHIN A REGION ALSO APPLY TO THE MOVEMENT OF ARRESTED OFFENDERS FROM THEIR RESIDENCE TO THE LOCATION OF THEIR OFFENSE. THE DATA UTILIZED IN THIS RESEARCH INCLUDE - A COMPLETE SURVEY OF THE MIGRATION OF ARRESTED OFFENDERS BETWEEN CENSUS TRACTS TO COMMIT A CRIME IN THE CITY OF ROCHESTER IN 1972; A MEASURE OF THE DISTANCE BETWEEN ANY TWO CENSUS TRACTS WITHIN THE CITY, AND DEMOGRAPHIC DATA ON THE SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS OF ALL AREAS WITHIN THE CITY. AMONG THE QUESTIONS THAT THIS RESEARCH SEEKS TO ANSWER IS WHETHER THE PROPENSITY FOR CRIMINAL MOVEMENT DEPENDS ON SUCH THINGS AS THE POPULATION OF THE DESTINATION, THE DISTANCE TRAVELED TO THE OFFENSE LOCATION, THE WEALTH OR THE RACIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NEIGHBORHOODS INVOLVED. ALTHOUGH ATTEMPTS TO FIT MANY OF THE MODELS PRODUCED DISAPPOINTING OR INCONCLUSIVE RESULTS, THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT SOME FORMULATION OF THE CLASSIC GRAVITY MODEL - IN WHICH THE ATTRACTION BETWEEN TWO OBJECTS IS INVERSELY RELATED TO THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THEM - IS AN EFFECTIVE PREDICTOR OF CRIME FLOW AND DESERVING OF MORE IN-DEPTH EXAMINATION. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT)