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MANDATORY RELEASE - A MEASURE OF TYPE 2 ERROR

NCJ Number
13764
Journal
Criminology Volume: 11 Issue: 4 Dated: (FEBRUARY 1974) Pages: 541-554
Author(s)
P B HOFFMAN
Date Published
1974
Length
14 pages
Annotation
EXAMINATION OF OUTCOME RATES FOR PAROLE AND MANDATORY RELEASES IN NEW YORK STATE DURING 1968.
Abstract
THE SAMPLE CONSISTED OF 1135 ADULT MALE INDETERMINATESENTENCE OFFENDERS ORIGINALLY RELEASED BY PAROLE OR MANDATORY RELEASE DURING 1968, WHO HAD BEEN CONVICTED OF ROBBERY, BURGLARY, OR MANSLAUGHTER. THE ROBBERY AND BURGLARY CASES WERE FURTHER SUBDIVIDED ON THE ATTRIBUTE OF HISTORY OF NARCOTIC USAGE. RESULTS OF A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DATA REVEALED THAT PAROLEES DO SUBSTANTIALLY BETTER THAN MANDATORY RELEASEES, WITH MORE FAVORABLE OUTCOMES AND FEWER NEW ARRESTS FOR EVERY GROUP COMPARISON, AND FEWER TECHNICAL OR ABSCONDING VIOLATIONS IN EVERY COMPARISON BUT ONE. PAROLEES AVERAGE 74 PERCENT FAVORABLE OUTCOMES COMPARED TO 53 PERCENT FOR MANDATORY RELEASEES, 12 PERCENT TECHNICAL AND ABSCONDING VIOLATIONS COMPARED TO 19 PERCENT, AND ONLY 14 PERCENT NEW ARRESTS COMPARED TO 28 PERCENT. HOWEVER, IT IS TO BE NOTED THAT EVEN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES, THE MAJORITY OF MANDATORY RELEASEES IN THE STUDY COMPLETED THE FIRST YEAR OF SUPERVISION WITHOUT DELINQUENCY. DISCUSSION OF THE RESULTS FOCUSES ON THE PAROLE DECISION-MAKING ERROR OF NOT PAROLING AN INMATE WHO WOULD HAVE COMPLETED PAROLE WITHOUT VIOLATION. THIS IS REFERRED TO AS TYPE II ERROR. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)

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