NCJ Number
53729
Date Published
1978
Length
133 pages
Annotation
A PROBATION BASE EXPECTANCY MODEL (PROBE) CONTAINING 32 SOCIAL, PSYCHOLOGICAL, AND LEGAL CHARACTERISTICS IS APPLIED TO DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN OFFENDERS ON THE BASIS OF SUPERVISION, PROBATION TERMINATION, AND RECIDIVISM.
Abstract
THE FOCUS OF THE STUDY WAS ON PROBATIONERS WITH NO HISTORY OF SUBSTANCE USE AND WHO HAVE GOOD MENTAL AND PHYSICAL HEALTH, ARE EMPLOYED, HAVE COMPLETED HIGH SCHOOL, AND HAVE A HISTORY OF STABLE FAMILY AND HOUSING. THESE PROBATIONERS HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF NOT BEING INVOLVED IN SUBSEQUENT CRIMINALITY, NOT NEEDING INTENSIVE PROBATION SUPERVISION, AND BEING DISCHARGED OR RELEASED EARLY FROM PROBATION THAN PROBATIONERS WHO DO NOT POSSESS THE SOCIAL, PSYCHOLOGICAL, AND LEGAL CHARACTERISTICS MENTIONED. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES WERE UTILIZED TO SUPPLEMENT FIELD WORK. RANDOM SAMPLING AND A COMPUTERIZED SCORING MATRIX WERE ALSO USED IN THE STUDY DESIGN. INFORMATION WAS OBTAINED FROM CRIMINAL HISTORY FILES OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM OPERATIONAL AT THE UNIVERSITY OF BEVERLY HILLS IN CALIFORNIA, THE PROBE SCORING INSTRUMENT, AND A COMPUTERIZED DISCRIMINATE ANALYSIS PACKAGE DEVELOPED AT THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS. THREE HYPOTHESES WERE TESTED: (1) THE MORE FREQUENT ONE'S ACCEPTABLE PERFORMANCE IN SOCIAL SITUATIONS PRIOR TO THE GRANT OF PROBATION, THE GREATER THE CHANCE OF SUCCESS; (2) THE MORE ACCEPTING OF SOCIAL CONFORMITY ONE'S PEER GROUPS ARE, THE GREATER THE CHANCE OF SUCCESS WHILE ON PROBATION; AND (3) THE MORE ACCEPTING OF SOCIAL CONFORMITY ONE'S PEER GROUPS ARE, THE MORE ACCEPTABLE ONE'S PERFORMANCE IS IN SOCIAL SITUATIONS OTHER THAN PROBATION. OF 200 PROBATION CASES SELECTED FOR STUDY, 100 WERE SUCCESSFUL AND 100 WERE UNSUCCESSFUL CASES. DATA ON 88 SUCCESSFUL AND 84 UNSUCCESSFUL CASES WERE ANALYZED USING THE PROBE SCORING INSTRUMENT. THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN 28 PROBE ITEMS, WHILE ONLY 8 ITEMS WERE INSIGNIFICANT IN RELATION TO RECIDIVISM AND PROBATION ADJUSTMENT. THERE WERE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AREA WHERE FAMILY, PEER GROUPS, AND LEGITIMATE SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS HAD SOME FORM OF POSITIVE INFLUENCE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF OFFENDERS WHICH REDUCED THE EFFECTS OF RECIDIVISM. THE PROBE SCORING INSTRUMENT REQUIRED SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS AS A RESULT OF THE FINDINGS. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE INSTRUMENT'S USE FOR FURTHER RESEARCH ARE DISCUSSED. SUPPORTING DATA AND A BIBLIOGRAPHY ARE INCLUDED. THE INITIAL PROBE SCORING INSTRUMENT, CODING FORMS, AND THE MODIFIED PROBE SCORING INSTRUMENT ARE APPENDED. (DEP)