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Review of the Offender Population Forecast: Models, Data and Requirements-With Provisional Forecasts for 1998 to 2007

NCJ Number
Roger Boe
Date Published
July 1997
37 pages
This report discusses past, present, and planned systems for predicting offender populations in Canada and presents provisional offender population forecasts for male, female, and Aboriginal offenders and for the total community supervision population.
The previous forecasting system used a group of comprehensive time-series models and historical offender data. However, this Offender Population Forecast system became unserviceable with the arrival of the Offender Management System in 1993. The Correctional Service of Canada has used simple trend extrapolations as an interim solution since then. Development of a new offender population forecasting system called the Offender Population Profiling and Simulation System is currently under way. This system will rebuild the historical time series and will include a model for forecasting offender profiles and Federal admissions. The provisional forecasts estimate a 1.4 percent annual rate of growth of the male offender on-register population and an increase in female offenders on register from 335 offenders in 1997 to 400 offenders by 2007. The forecasts estimate that the total community supervision population will increase from 8,773 in 1997 to 9,539 by 2007. Tables, figure, and appended tables and figure