NCJ Number
185084
Journal
Crime & Delinquency Volume: 46 Issue: 4 Dated: October 2000 Pages: 446-456
Date Published
October 2000
Length
11 pages
Annotation
This article examines the effects of particular policies on crime rates.
Abstract
The article addresses the problem of testing the effects of particular policies on crime rates in an era of general down trends. One illustration of the problem is the substantial decline in New York City non-gun-homicide rates for 8 years prior to any significant change in policing; the decline could not plausibly have been caused by the later events. The article contrasts three different "controls" for time trend effects: naive cross-sectional controls, detailed models of crime causation and qualitative checks that examine whether the details of crime patterns are changing in ways consistent with theories of policy events as change agents. The country today is experiencing a close-to-euphoric competition to claim credit for major crime reductions for a variety of countermeasures, from policing to imprisonment levels to the deterrent effects of new laws. The article questions whether criminal justice policies should be assumed to affect general crime rates in broad and undifferentiated ways. Figures, references