Extending Our Knowledge About Recidivism of Persons on Federal Supervision

• NCJ Number: 244015
• Journal: Federal Probation Volume: 77 Issue: 2 Dated: September 2013 Pages: 23-27
• Author(s): Laura M. Baber; Mark Motivans
• Date Published: September 2013
• Length: 5 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical); Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This study examined revocation rates, arrest rates, and rates that combined both measures during and after completing supervision for a cohort of Federal clients received for supervision (supervised pretrial release and probation) between October 1, 2004, and September 30, 2005 (the FY 2005 cohort).

Abstract

The study found that just over 38 percent of the cohort recidivated within 5 years of beginning supervision. Almost 25 percent were rearrested, and 13.5 percent were revoked. Clients sentenced to longer supervision terms had higher failure rates. Drug offenses composed almost 30 percent of new arrests, property offense 26 percent, and violent offenses slightly more than 23 percent. Researchers were unable to classify approximately 6 percent of the new arrests. The remaining 15 percent of arrests, each of which represented less than 3 percent of the total, were for firearms, immigration, escape/obstruction, sex offenses, public order, and other offenses. The research team built a predictive model of revocation and rearrests, using offender demographics and risk and protective factors. Risk factors included longer criminal histories, gender (male), greater indications of substance abuse problems, greater indications of mental health issues, and higher levels of unemployment and basic needs. Protective factors included strong social support systems, strong skills and motivation, fewer medical needs, and increased age. Holding risk and protective factors constant, district-level variables also increased the likelihood of recidivism. Districts with large populations had somewhat lower arrest rates and revocations than districts with small population size. Districts that experienced an increase in population between 2000 and 2006 had higher rates of rearrest and revocation, as did districts with an increased percentage of Native Americans. In addition, neighborhoods with high levels of poverty and transience increased the likelihood of recidivism. The influence of officer characteristics was also examined. 2 tables