NCJ Number
171240
Date Published
1998
Length
20 pages
Annotation
This chapter summarizes data from research literature on the predictive risk factors for adolescent and early adult violent or serious delinquent behavior.
Abstract
The investigation used meta-analytic procedures directed at two major questions: What predictor (risk) variables observable prior to adolescence show the strongest empirical associations with subsequent violent or serious delinquency? Are the largest of these empirical associations of sufficient magnitude to be useful for identifying juveniles at risk for serious or violent delinquency for the purpose of preventive intervention? The best predictors from both the age 6-11 and 12-14 periods are capable of distinguishing juveniles whose risk for violent/serious offending during age 15-25 is high enough to warrant attention. Moreover, many of the strongest predictors are variables that are themselves malleable and may be appropriate targets for intervention. Especially striking is the prevalence of early antisocial behavior among the top-ranked predictors, for example, general offenses, substance use, aggression, and physical violence. Equally striking for older youth is the strength of predictors relating to problematic social and peer relations. These factors not only have diagnostic value for identifying high-risk juveniles, but also suggest that disruption of early patterns of antisocial behavior and the peer support for such behavior may be an especially promising strategy for preventive intervention. Tables, appendixes, bibliography